Can We Trust Election Opinion Polls in Malta?

Pollsters in the Spotlight

With the next general election just around the corner, local pollsters have been busy crunching numbers and predicting outcomes. But the recent past has seen a global shift in public trust towards these predictions. From Brexit to the 2016 US Presidential Election, pollsters have faced criticism for getting it wrong. So, how reliable are they in Malta?

Take the recent Times of Malta poll, which gave Labour a 10-point lead. Does this reflect the mood on the ground, or is it just a snapshot in time? And what about the MaltaToday poll that showed a narrower gap?

Methodology Matters

Pollsters use various methods to gather data. Some rely on telephone surveys, others on online panels. The sample size, the demographics targeted, and the questions asked can all influence the results. Malta’s small size and diverse population make polling here a challenge. But are our pollsters up to the task?

Dr. Joseph M. Fenech, a political scientist at the University of Malta, believes that while Maltese polls are generally reliable, they’re not perfect. “The margin of error can be significant, especially with smaller sample sizes,” he says. “And different methodologies can yield different results.”

Polling Paradoxes

Another issue is the so-called pollster’s dilemma. When people know they’re being polled, they may give answers they think are socially acceptable, rather than their true opinions. This is especially relevant in Malta, where political tribalism runs deep.

Then there’s the issue of trust in media. With many Maltese getting their news online, and trust in media outlets varying widely, how can we be sure that people are accurately recalling and interpreting the information they’ve been exposed to?

polls are snapshots in time. They don’t account for late deciders, or the impact of last-minute campaigning. Remember the 2017 French Presidential Election, where polls predicted a Le Pen victory, only for Macron to win in a landslide?

So, Can We Trust Polls?

The short answer? Yes, but with caveats. Polls can give us a rough idea of public opinion, but they’re not infallible. They’re just one tool among many for understanding an election. As Dr. Fenech puts it, “Polls are useful, but they’re not the be-all and end-all. We should also be looking at other indicators, like candidate performances, party funding, and grassroots activism.”

So, as you watch the polls roll in, remember to take them with a grain of salt. They’re not predictions, just snapshots. The real story will unfold on election day, at polling stations across Malta, from Msida to Żebbuġ.