Imagine, if you will, the chilling scene unfolding in the skies above the Baltic Sea. A formation of Russian TU-160 strategic bombers, the largest and heaviest combat aircraft currently in operation, soars through the crisp autumn air. Their destination? The skies above Belarus, where they’re joined by Belarusian warplanes in a joint military exercise that has set the international community on edge.

Welcome to the latest chapter in the geopolitical drama that’s been playing out in Europe’s backyard. Russia and Belarus, in a show of force that’s sent shivers down the spines of NATO allies, have kicked off their largest-ever joint military exercises, codenamed ‘Union Resolve 2022’. And at the heart of this display of military might? Nuclear capabilities.

The exercises, taking place just a stone’s throw from the borders of NATO members Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, involve thousands of troops, hundreds of military vehicles, and, most worryingly, live firing of nuclear-capable missiles. Russia’s Defence Ministry has been quick to assure the world that these drills are purely defensive in nature, but the message being sent is hard to miss.

In the heart of Valletta, locals and tourists alike have been buzzing about the news. “It’s scary, isn’t it?” says Maria, a local shopkeeper in Republic Street. “We’re so close to all this. It makes you wonder, what if something goes wrong?” Her sentiments are echoed across the island, with many Maltese feeling a sense of unease at the military manoeuvres taking place so close to home.

NATO, quick to condemn the exercises, has put its forces on high alert. In a statement, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that the drills “send a threatening message to the entire Euro-Atlantic community”. But what does all this mean for Malta, an island nation that’s no stranger to geopolitical tensions?

Malta, a member of the EU but not NATO, has long walked a diplomatic tightrope when it comes to Russia. While maintaining good relations with Moscow, it’s also committed to EU and UN sanctions against Russia over its annexation of Crimea. The current crisis has put Malta in a tricky position, with Foreign Minister Evarist Bartolo quick to express his concern over the drills.

“Malta is following the situation closely,” he said in a statement. “We call on all parties to exercise restraint and to avoid any actions that could escalate tensions.” It’s a sentiment echoed by many Maltese, who, while proud of their island’s neutrality, are also wary of the potential fallout from the current crisis.

As the geopolitical storm brews on its doorstep, Malta finds itself taking a closer look at its own defence capabilities. The island, long reliant on its strategic location for its security, has been investing in its military in recent years. The recent acquisition of two C-27J Spartan aircraft from Italy, for instance, has bolstered the Armed Forces of Malta’s airlift capabilities.

But with the current crisis serving as a stark reminder of the island’s vulnerability, many are calling for more to be done. “We need to be ready for anything,” says Dr. Joseph Borg, a security analyst based in Msida. “That means investing in our military, in our infrastructure, and in our diplomatic ties.”

Back in Valletta, Maria has her own take on the situation. “We’re a small island, but we’re not powerless,” she says. “We need to stand up for ourselves, and for our place in the world. And that means being ready for whatever comes our way.”